Forty years ago this week, reactor 4 of the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant exploded. The human and monetary costs were in the thousands and hundreds of billions respectively. More difficult to quantify was Chernobyl’s contribution to the collapse of the Soviet Union. However, I did re-watch the excellent HBO series Chernobyl in recent days and was struck by a non-monetary factor which might resonate for those currently enduring daily White House appeals to ignore our eyes and ears. The words of Professor Valery Legasov of Moscow State University in the opening scene of Chernobyl seem almost prescient - “What is the cost of lies? It's not that we'll mistake them for the truth. The real danger is that if we hear enough lies, then we no longer recognize the truth at all.” For the USSR, the truth of technological decline, an obsolete economic model, and the inability of centralised power to deal with the complexity of a more connected global economy was easy to see. But fatally, not recognized. Fast forward to today, and we could be in similar TRUTH territory….
Don’t worry, we won’t go down any conspiracy theory rabbit holes. So, no need to wonder why a would-be assassin might gain access without security challenge to the Washington Hilton and within one floor of almost the entire Trump regime senior leadership at Saturday’s annual White House Correspondents dinner. If the current head of the FBI is nicknamed “J. Edgar Boozer” then the truth is closer to incompetence than conspiracy. Similarly, but with far greater global economic impact, if Germany’s normally cautious Chancellor Merz is saying that the US has “no clear exit strategy” and is being “humiliated” by Iran, then the truth is that the US does not really “hold all the cards” or the keys to “Schrödinger’s Strait” of Hormuz. The consequences are plain to see as oil prices soar past $110 per barrel again and OPEC’s number 3 producer, UAE, just left the cartel after 59 years of membership.
Clearly, the old world order alliances from NATO to OPEC are fragmenting. And, that’s before anyone dares to mention the eye-catching new Pew (March 2026) poll showing 60% of Americans now view Israel unfavourably — up from 42% in 2022. That’s almost as bad a swing as Trump’s voter approval on dealing with inflation shifting to a net MINUS 40, and national Consumer Sentiment surveys (Michigan/Ipsos) diving to the lowest levels seen since 1978. And yet….
There’s a danger we have been distracted and miss other truths. Watch what people do, not what they feel. For example US consumer sentiment might be plummeting but US retail sales are running ‘hot’ at 7.7% year-on-year growth, the fastest growth pace seen since 2022. Meanwhile, fossil fuels and Strait of Hormuz blockades (unless you’re a Russian oligarch's yacht – I know...Russia, Russia, Russia) might be dominating the gloomy headlines but there’s more positive long-term developments accelerating at speed. If you have been unable to copy or track Baron Trump’s oil trading strategies or share the Fox Business congratulations of Maria Bartiromo on Eric Trump’s new $24 million contract with the Pentagon(yup), then there’s good news and bad news. The bad news is you’re not making millions on risk-free trading or commerce, but the good news is you won’t need a fitting for an orange jump suit. However, away from the fossil fuel supply crisis, check out the following quiet developments which could hurt your investment portfolio if you miss them…
- In 2025, for the first time in history, clean power met every single unit of new global electricity demand.
- Renewable energy sources (33.8%) officially crushed coal (33.0%) for the first time in 100 years.
- Electric vehicle (EV) sales in emerging markets have surged 80%.
- In Europe, EV sales soared 51% in March while EV sales smash through 25% of the total global market.
- Chinese company, CATL, just unveiled a battery with a 1,500km range that charges in 6 minutes
- China exports of batteries, EVs and solar cells were up 34%, 53%, 80% respectively last month.
“Every lie we tell incurs a debt to the truth. Sooner or later that debt is paid”